HAB Forecasts
A principal responsibility of the EPA and NOAA is to provide monitoring and forecasting data on HABs across the United States. This page describes the resources users can access to find information on forecasts for HABs for waterbodies across the U.S.
Freshwater Forecasts
EPA scientists recently developed a forecast model to predict weekly HAB probability in resolvable lakes served by the CyAN app.
- Forecasting Model Publication – Schaeffer et al. 2024
- Cyanobacteria Assessment Network Application (CyAN app)
The Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast model predicts the likelihood of a bloom occurring in the coming week for over 2,000 of the largest U.S. lakes and reservoirs across the lower 48 states. For each of these satellite resolvable lakes, the model generates a weekly probability of cyanoHAB occurrence exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) recreation Alert Level 1 threshold (≥12 ug/L chlorophyll-a with cyanobacteria dominance). The model predictions were validated with CyAN satellite data and have an overall prediction accuracy of 90 percent.
In the Great Lakes, NOAA provides a seasonal forecast tool for Lake Erie, which provides an estimate of the predicted severity in the summer algal bloom in western Lake Erie.
Marine Forecasts
Similar to that for Lake Erie, NOAA, its partners, and collaborators serve forecasts for a number of coastal regions including the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, the Gulf of Maine, the Pacific Northwest and California.